Category: Arable

The AHDB has released its latest version of the Nutrient Management Guide; RB209.  The guide is applicable to all those farming in England, Wales and Northern Ireland and offers best practice guidance on the application of fertilisers and organic materials to crops and grassland.  The main changes to the revision include new recommendations for the use of Phosphate in arable crops, which is the outcome of 10 years of research work.  The latest RB209 focuses on taking accurate soil samples but also grain sampling and analysis, the latter has been identified as helping to give a more accurate picture.  A further change to the RB209 P recommendations sees an arable farm only growing autumn-sown combinable crops being able to manage their arable soils at index 1, instead of the previous benchmark 2.  This should be possible on well-drained soils, where plants can development good root systems and fresh P can be applied annually.  Further information and the latest version can be found at: https://ahdb.org.uk/RB209

The US Environment Protection Agency (EPA) has (again) confirmed Glyphosate is safe to use.  In an interim decision, the EPA concluded there were ‘no risks of concern to human health when Glyphosate is used according to the label and that it is not a carcinogen’.  The findings are consistent with the US Department of Agriculture and the European Food Safety Authority.  However, this contrasts with the World Health Organization’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), which concluded in 2015 that Glyphosate is ‘probably carcinogenic to humans’.  The EPA’s evaluation is part of a routine re-registration process that the agency conducts every 15 years for pesticides in the US market place.

Glyphosate is the active ingredient in Monsanta’s Roundup, now produced by Bayer.  The company is currently facing nearly 43,000 compensation claims, alleging Roundup is responsible for causing cancer; the majority of these claims are in the US.  Glyphosate is approved for use in the EU until 15th December 2022.  Of course now we have left the EU, the UK government can set its own rules on plant protection products (PPPs), although during the Transition Period, to the end of this year, the EU rules still apply. 

Final 2019 harvest estimates show the UK crop was the third smallest crop this century, although the British crop was just above the psychologically important five million tonne level.

Latest figures from the AHDB show a 3.7% increase in production in Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales) to 5.100 million tonnes.  Output in Northern Ireland was up 11.5% to 129,400 tonnes taking the UK figure to 5.229 million tonnes; 3.9% more than in 2018.

The UK area was up 1.0% to 122,753 hectares, with only a 0.9% increase in the British area to 118,953 hectares.  Average British yields were up 9.4% to 46.5 tonnes per hectare, with a 5.5% increase in Northern Ireland yields to 35t per Ha.  British seed production was up 1.1% to 560,200 tonnes, with a 4.0% increase in ware area to 4.540 million tonnes.

Although the increase in UK production is only just over 200,000 tonnes, total output might be enough to supply the British market, especially if there is reduced export demand.  British exporters were able to ship the highest volume since the 2010/11 season from the small 2018 crop but prices for the 2018/19 season failed to take off as much as many had expected.  Export prospects for the 2019/20 season will depend on the quality of potatoes in store.

The mild and largely dry early January conditions allowed some remaining crops to be lifted but material is very vulnerable and there are reports of poor fry quality among late-harvested crops.  Recent warm weather will also not have helped stocks in ambient stores.

Current free-buy prices are about £200 per tonne.  That is £60 per tonne less than they were a year ago but more than double where they were two years ago.

The effective banning of use of the storage chemical CIPC from the 2020/21 year and concerns over seed supplies may limit any gain in potato area this year, which is unlikely to be more than 124,000 hectares for the whole of the UK.

Harvest 2019 produced mixed results on a global scale, in terms of the main combinable crops.  As the months progress, the figures produced by the likes of the International Grains Council (IGC) become more accurate as better data becomes available (and harvests are completed around the word).

For wheat, after the ‘blip’ in production seen for harvest 2018 (due to European droughts and other factors), there has been a recovery in production.  This is weighing on prices to some extent, but an increase in consumption means that forecast year-end stocks will be in the range seen over the last few years.

The figures for 2019 maize production have been revised up over the last month.  Even so, global output for the year is down on 2018.  Year-end stocks are seen falling from 318 million tonnes to 279 million tonnes, or about 3 month’s global supply.  The stocks-to-use ratio is at its lowest level for some years.  As maize (‘corn’ in the US) is the benchmark cereal from which most others are priced, tighter markets should give some support to all grain prices.

Soybean production and year-end stocks are forecast to fall for harvest 2019.  With consumption rising this can only be bullish for oilseeds commodity prices, including our oilseed rape crop.

Weather Data

The extraordinarily wet autumn has left as much as half of the planned winter wheat area still undrilled at a time of year when we would normally expect over 90% to be completed.  Throughout much of the East Midlands, from the heavy soils of Leicestershire to unusually wet Lincolnshire flats, fields as far as the eye can see remain uncultivated.  The data from the Met Office does not fully reflect the problems that have been caused.  Looking at October rainfall alone in most parts of the UK, the amounts only to a 1 in 13 chance (i.e. this amount of rain has fallen ten times over the last 130 years).  It is when you add up the rain from early summer through to now, that it becomes a one in 35-year occurrence.  Indeed now, with soils saturated, only a millimetre or two of rain re-saturates the fields again.  Many farmers in this region have now gone away from their farms, and plan to return to tackle spring cropping.

UK October Rainfall Statistics from Met Office

Oilseed rape too has suffered from rot, and Cabbage Stem Flea Beetle, which has been worse this year than, it seems, any other.  The resolve by many farmers and agronomists not to cultivate OSR in future has been publicly made.  Whether we see that promise carried through next year or not we will see, but some will certainly be looking for alternative cropping options.

Europe is also struggling to plant its winter crops, albeit not as much as here in Britain.  Strategie Grains has reduced its estimate of EU planted areas for 2020 harvest to less than last year and crop ratings in France have been slipping.  Only three quarters of French wheat is drilled so far, compared with 97% in normal years at the end of November.

Early-Bird Crop Area Forecasts

The wet autumn has had clear effects on this autumn’s arable plantings.  The AHDB’s Early Bird Survey of cropping intentions for harvest 2020 has just been released and shows a significant drop in winter cereals area.  The table below shows a summary of the results.  Changes in cropping area have been extrapolated onto the data from Defra’s provisional 2019 UK June Survey to produce forecasted crop areas for the 2020 harvest.

The wheat area is forecast to fall by 9% which, if correct, would result in 1,645,000ha for harvest 2020, this would be the lowest wheat area since 2013. The spring wheat proportion within total wheat is seen rising a considerable 358%. It is thought that potentially half the UK winter wheat crop is still not planted though, so the decline could end up larger than the survey currently suggests.

The winter barley area is expected to fall by 12% to about 398,000ha (still higher than 2018), and oilseed rape experiencing a 23% reduction to about 406,000ha. This would be the smallest area drilled since 2002.

The area of spring crops are expected to increase in 2020 and could further rise depending on the next couple of months. Spring barley is anticipated to rise by 28% to 915,000ha, a level not seen since 1988, when over a million hectares was cropped. The survey suggests that the pulse area may rise by nearly a quarter to 221,000ha, almost to levels seen in 2016. This is likely led by spring pulses but it is also noted that winter beans can generally be planted quite late in the season. Unsurprisingly, the fallow area is also thought to be rising (17%).

Other arable crops are all seen rising for 2020. This includes other combinable cereals (up 16%), other oilseeds (up 16%) and other non-combinable crops on arable land (including roots, vegetables, and a proportion of maize and temporary grass crops) (up 5%).

The Early-Bird Survey is undertaken each autumn to assess national cropping intentions.  It is carried out by The Andersons Centre with the help of the Association of Independent Crop Consultants (AICC) and other agronomists.  Over 80 agronomists took part in this year’s survey contributing over 615,000ha of arable land stratified across all regions of Great Britain.

Like many real-life farms across the country, Andersons’ Loam Farm is also having to deal with the effects of the very wet autumn.  This has led to budgets for harvest 2020 being reworked to accommodate more spring planting.  Of the usual 300 hectares of wheat that this farm plants each autumn it has been assumed that half will not get in.  The farm is planning to grow 150 Ha of spring barley instead.  The resulting figures are shown in the table below – figures for the past two harvest are shown along with the pre-rain budget for 2020 and then the current one.

* result   ‚~ estimated   #ƒ budget

It can be seen that profitability was forecast to decline for the coming harvest anyway.  This was partly as a result of yields reverting to the mean after the wheat and beans produced higher-than-average figures for the previous harvest.  But costs were also projected to rise for the present cropping year.

With the farm now planning to grow a substantial area of spring barley, it can be seen that the overall output drops from the original budget as the revenue from the crop will not be as large as from winter wheat (despite some malting premium being assumed).  Output has also been reduced by the forecast oilseed rape yield being decreased – some of Loam Farm’s OSR crops are looking sickly in the wet ground.  Variable costs decrease as spring barley is a cheaper crop to grow.  No change has been made to overheads as it is assumed that cost structures will not change in the short-term.

Overall, the wet autumn means that profitability looks set to be reduced compared with initial estimates.  However, the change is not massive, which highlights the fact that spring crops don’t always affect overall performance too much if they are done well, simply because of how expensive it is becoming to grow winter crops.

Loam Farm is a notional business, located in East Anglia, which has been running since 1991 and tracks the fortunes of arable farming.  It comprises a 600 hectare (1,480 acre) combinable crop farm running a usual rotation of milling wheat, WOSR, feed wheat, and spring beans.  Of the cropped area, 240 Ha are owned and 360 Ha rented on FBTs.  There is a working proprietor plus one full-time man and harvest casual.

The wet October has frustrated potato lifting, with some growers still expecting to be harvesting at the end of November when crops will be vulnerable to more rain or frosts.

Early season conditions in the east of the country were, if anything, a little dry, while crops in the west and north of the country have had too much rain throughout the season.  The poor weather will lead to pressure on potato supply for the second year running and prices are starting to increase sharply already and are expected to rise throughout the season.

The AHDB estimates that 2019 GB plantings are just shy of 119,000 hectares, up only marginally on the 2018 figure.  Yields are likely to be below the long-term average and it is unlikely that a national crop of more than 5.2 million tonnes will be delivered.  The wet harvest will mean that good quality material will be in particular demand.

The European crop suffered from drought and heat in the first part of the season which damaged yields and made early harvesting difficult.  Heavy rain in the last six weeks has now delayed lifting and a significant shortage is likely.  This is supporting prices and demand for imported potatoes.

The UK has benefitted from EU import demand over the last year, particularly from Poland.  Exporters feared that a No-Deal Brexit would bring trade to a halt because, after departure, the UK would be treated as a third country supplier without EU export certification.  It was unknown as to how long it would take for the UK to gain certification.  However, sales of around 20,000 tonnes to the Canary Islands would have been protected by a separate arrangement as would seed potato exports to Egypt and Morocco, which have agreed to recognise the UK’s export status even outside the EU.