The AHDB’s Early Bird Survey (EBS) has been published. It shows the wheat area for harvest 2017 marginally lower, with larger declines in the oilseed rape, winter barley and pulse areas. The area of spring barley is forecast to rise again.
The survey is undertaken by the Association of Independent Crop Consultants (AICC) and The Andersons Centre each autumn and in the past has provided accurate figures at an early stage in the cropping year. Data has been gathered from 262,500 hectares of arable land across GB to assess national cropping intentions. The table below shows the estimated crop areas for 2017 when the EBS results are overlaid onto the UK provisional June 2016 crop area figures.
| EARLY BIRD SURVEY (EBS) ESTIMATES OF GB CROP AREAS FOR HARVEST 2017 | |||
| ‘000 hectares |
DEFRA June Survey 2016 |
EBS Forecast Harvest 2017 |
Change |
|
All Wheat |
1,824 |
1,799 |
-1% |
|
Winter Barley |
438 |
397 |
-9% |
|
Spring Barley |
685 |
799 |
17% |
|
Oats |
141 |
130 |
-8% |
|
Other Cereals |
41 |
44 |
7% |
|
OSR |
579 |
557 |
-4% |
|
Other Oilseeds |
28 |
54 |
95% |
|
Pulses |
230 |
216 |
-6% |
|
Arable Fallow |
251 |
214 |
-15% |
|
Other Crops on Arable Land |
333 ¹ |
364 ² |
9% |
|
Total |
4,550 |
4,574 |
|
| Source: DEFRA /The Andersons Centre
¹ Sugar beet, potatoes & vegetable; ² Sugar beet, potatoes, maize, vegetables, roots & other stock feed |
|||
The results show that the wheat area is forecast to fall marginally compared with last year to 1.8 million hectares; this is 4% below the five-year average. The wheat area also includes spring wheat which, anecdotally, is reported to continue to be rising.
The winter barley area is expected to decline by about 9%. Conversely, the spring barley area is forecast to continue to increase, up by 17% compared to last harvest. This gives the highest spring barley area since the late 1980’s (apart from harvests 2001 and 2013 when poor planting conditions in the previous autumn led to an unusual increase in spring cropping). However, it is possible that some spring barley could be swapped for spring wheat if the price spread between wheat and barley continues.
This autumn, drilling conditions in most parts of the UK have been good, (apart from a few areas being dry) which means that the majority of planned winter cropping should have taken place. These sorts of conditions usually see high winter wheat and winter OSR plantings. The increase in spring cropping is therefore due to reasons other than poor drilling conditions and is more than likely due to black grass control.
The oilseed rape area is anticipated to fall again; this is the fifth consecutive year that the area has fallen and is the lowest since 2004. The overall forecast decline of 4% masks key regional differences. In the West Midlands, South and Scotland the area is expected to actually increase on the back of better prices (especially compared to the economics of alternative break crops). But in the East, the area is down by 28%, as producers struggle with flea beetle and dry conditions at drilling.
After seeing significant rises in 2015 and 2016 the pulse area is forecast to fall by 6%. This would be back to 2015 levels, but still well above the five-year average. It seems whilst many were using pulses to meet their EFA requirements, lacklustre pricesfor the crop has seen producers find alternative options to meet these measures. Fallow land is seen to be declining by 15%, probably due to markets looking better for most combinable crops and a lower uptake of agri-environmental schemes. The area for ‘other crops’ has been less reliable in previous years, but is expected to increase mainly driven by a rise in maize plantings and temporary grass destined for anaerobic digestion plants or for weed control.