The resilience of the potato crop has shone through this season, with yields higher than might have been expected given one of the latest planting periods for many years.
Cold and wet conditions delayed spring drilling, with some growers not finishing until early June. But since then, conditions have been favourable with a mix of sunshine and summer rain – there was twice as much rainfall as normal in July. The crop was also able to withstand heatwaves in June and September, so overall yields are at least average for many and above average for some.
Better-than-hoped-for yields will not compensate for a decline in the area however. It may have been down by as much as 10%, with a bigger drop in the packing potato area. Overall GB plantings are likely to be 100,000 hectares or smaller – a record low. The crop may struggle to get above 450,000 tonnes.
The small size of the crop is already apparent in higher prices, with values of between £250 and £450 per tonne for packing types, depending on variety and quality, according to the Potato Call newsletter. Most bagged potatoes for the fish and chip trade are being sold for at least £250 per tonne. Prices could increase further once harvest supplies ease and growers lock potatoes up in store.
The discovery of isolated cases of Colorado Beetle in Kent and Hampshire potato fields over the summer led the Canary Islands to suspend imports of all UK ware and seed potatoes. That trade should be resuming soon after more checks and restrictions on what and how potatoes could be moved to the Islands were agreed between Defra, the Spanish and Canarian authorities. The trade in ware and seed to the islands is worth more than £10 million a year.
A small increase in area and improvement in yield means there are more potatoes in Europe this year than last, but volumes are still below 2021 and 2020 levels. Prices started the season at record highs of up to €500 per tonne for processing potatoes, but have plunged to €100 per tonne as harvest supplies have increased. The expectation is values will rise later in the season. In many cases, contract prices are 30% higher than last year, beginning at €175 per tonne and rising to €280 by June.
Demand for potato products around the world remains strong despite some recent buyer resistance to high prices. This includes record imports of frozen chips into the UK, which rose by almost 60% in the year to July to £919 million.
Expansion of the potato crop in 2024 could be held back by a lack of seed. The area is estimated to have declined by 7% in key seed potato areas including the Netherlands and Scotland; European association Europatat has urged buyers to accept larger seed sizes to ensure they have the seed they need.