Due to rising input costs, budgets for our Meadow Farm model have been revisited and updated. Meadow Farm is a mixed lowland farm, typical of many livestock holdings in England, it is a notional 154 hectare (380 acre) beef and sheep farm in the Midlands. It consists of grassland, with wheat and barley for livestock feed. There are 60 spring-calving suckler cows with all progeny finished, a dairy bull beef enterprise and a 500 breeding ewe flock. The table below shows the final results for the last three years and a forecast for 2022/23. It can be seen how the current ‘agflation’ is impacting, even when livestock and crop prices are buoyant.
For the year ending April 2022 (2021/2022) livestock prices reached record levels, resulting in the highest livestock gross margin figure for Meadow Farm ever seen. Arable margins were also strong. The purchase of a new piece of machinery has seen overheads increased but even so, the margin from production is positive – for the first time in many years. The BPS has fallen due to the first BPS deduction under the Agricultural Transition, but the addition of this still leaves a good profit for the business relative to other years.
The final column is a forecast for 2022/23 and it clearly shows the impact of increased, fuel, fertiliser and feed costs for this type of farm. Currently, the UK beef price is running ahead of last year’s levels and prices have been ‘tweaked-up’ in the current budget. However, some caution has been exercised. Meadow Farm markets its beef cattle from August to October and an increase in supplies, particularly from Ireland could lower prices by then and this has been accounted for in the budget. In addition, as the energy crisis hits home and consumer spending power is affected, this could see consumers switch to cheaper proteins. However, in lock-down, when consumers were forced to eat at home, the UK beef and lamb market did well. So, if hard pressed consumers reduce their out-of-home consumption, this may not impact as much as might be feared. Overheads rise due to increased fuel prices. A planned investment in a new cattle shed, to replace old ones, means the depreciation increases. The result is the margin from production plummets and not even the BPS, (which is reduced by 20% this year) can bring the Business Surplus back into the black.
The proprietors of Meadow Farm are keeping an eye on the new Sustainable Farming Incentive, to see if some of the ‘lost’ BPS can be recouped from this scheme and if there could be any assistance with equipment and the building of the new cattle housing via the Animal Health and Welfare grants expected to be available later this year. But ultimately this business is subsidy-dependent, and with direct payments being phased out it will need to adapt; maybe through restructuring to reduce its overheads, which are fundamentally too high, or perhaps by taking advantage of the new ELM scheme, or likely to be a combination of both.