UK finished pig prices have been on a steady increase since March 2019 but the period of bouyancy may now be coming to an end. The GB UK-spec SPP (Standard Pig Price) reached a high of 162.57p per kg at the beginning of July; nearly a penny dearer than the last high seen at the end of July 2017. But prices have been struggling across the EU recently and these now seem to be influencing the British market. Throughout August, prices have fallen week-on-week. The GB UK-spec SPP for the week ending 5th September fell by 1.23p per kg on the week to 158.28p per kg. This is the largest weekly fall since June 2019, although the price is still 8p per kg above 2019 levels for the same week. A case of African Swine Fever has been confirmed in Germany, which could put prices under further downward pressure.
On 10th September Germany announced its first case of African Swine Fever (ASF); found in a wild boar near the Polish border. Germany is the largest European pork producer and exporter. Usually countries outside the EU place a total ban on pork imports from ASF infected countries, even if the disease is only found in wild boar. The EU allows unaffected regions to continue to trade with other EU countries. If this were the case, Germany’s usual export volumes would be available on the EU market, increasing supplies and depressing pig prices across the EU.
Germany exports a significant amount of pork to China. The usual Chinese approach would be to apply a total ban to all German exports. However, Germany has previously been hopeful it could agree a regional approach with China if the country was to become infected. In addition, as ASF in China itself has meant a serious shortage of pork in the country, China may change its policy and accept a regional approach. But even if this doesn’t happen, an updated report, by the AHDB, shows the EU pork situation has changed significantly over the past 18 months and it appears the spread of ASF into Germany may have less severe consequences on the market than it once would have had.
Due to ASF in China, there has been a sharp rise in demand and other countries in the EU have been sending significant quantities of pork to China, so that if Germany is unable to export and the volumes are retained in the EU, the market is unlikely to be swamped. Prices are still likely to decline, but probably not by as much as once feared.