A typical lowland mixed family farm continues to struggle to make money from farming. This is the finding from the latest update from Andersons Meadow Farm Model, and illustrates the sizeable adjustments that will be required after future changes in support.
To recap, Meadow Farm is a notional 154 hectare (380 acre) lowland mixed beef and sheep business typical of many family-run livestock operations across Great Britain. The farm runs a 60 cow suckler herd and a 500 ewe mule sheep flock; in both cases finishing all progeny. There is also a small dairy-cross bull-beef enterprise and 32 hectares (80 acres) of feed wheat and feed barley is grown. The model is managed on a real-time basis and provides an accurate representation of business structures and changes in annual performance.
Meadow Farm Model – source The Andersons Centre | ||||
£/Ha Year – |
2016/17 (final) |
2017/18 (final) | 2018/19 (est.) |
2019/20 (f’cast) |
Livestock Gross Margin |
646 |
717 | 674 |
696 |
Arable Gross Margin |
649 |
647 | 679 |
679 |
Total Gross Margin |
648 |
700 | 675 |
689 |
Overheads |
480 |
496 | 505 |
515 |
Rent & Finance |
234 |
233 | 236 |
240 |
Drawings |
84 |
84 | 82 |
82 |
Margin from Production |
(149) |
(112) | (150) |
(147) |
BPS & CSS |
213 |
250 | 241 |
243 |
Business Surplus |
64 |
137 | 91 |
96 |
The table above shows the results for the last two years and an estimate for the current year, to the end of March 2019, plus a forecast for 2019/20.
The figures for the past 2017/18 year show an improvement in business performance compared to the previous year. This was largely due to better sheep and beef values. Cereals values were also higher, but the arable gross margin was affected by areas of the farm being taken out of production so the business could enter a Countryside Stewardship Scheme. This increased support income, along with the weaker Pound boosting the BPS.
Initial budgets for the current year saw it matching 2017/18 for profitability. However, a number of weather-related adjustments have meant that the latest set of figures show a reduced level of returns. The late, wet, spring followed by the extended period of hot dry weather has seen forecast cereals yields reduced (not fully offset by higher grain prices), later finishing of stock (with lower prices for lambs), and higher costs – especially straw and increased animal feed. Consequently, the loss from production rises.
The forecast figures for 2019/20 are relatively unchanged, but it will be noted that overhead costs continue to edge up.
Whilst the margin from production is negative, the business does make a surplus once support payments are factored-in. And this is after drawings have been taken out of the business (albeit at fairly low levels – £36,500). Therefore, at current price and efficiency levels, the business is sustainable, but only as long as support continues to be paid as it is currently. It seems clear, in England and Wales at least, that this will not be the case by 2025. The move to payments for Public Goods is likely to severely test these types of farms.