Tag: crop areas

Wheat Area Down in UK

The area planted to wheat in the UK is expected to fall by 1.3% according to the results of the annual AHDB Early Bird Survey of UK planting intentions.  The survey, conducted by The Andersons Centre with the support of the AICC and other agronomists, captures a snapshot in early November.  This is a crucial caveat to the survey, in that it reflects the time before storms Babet, Ciarán and Debi.

Irrespective of the conditions of the storm, winter plantings were already expected to decline owing to the wet conditions which have persisted since harvest.  The area planted to winter barley is expected to fall by 6%.  Much of the fall in winter cropping will be replaced by spring barley (forecast up 13%) or oats (up 12%).

With prices having tumbled from their post-Ukraine invasion high, it is no surprise to also see the area intended to be planted to OSR falling by 16%.  This will also include a proportion which has already been written off, with flea beetle and slugs enjoying the mild post-planting weather.

Time will tell as to whether all the wheat area intended is planted.  Weather conditions between now and mid-January will be pivotal.  In addition, close attention needs to be paid to the condition of crops in the ground (see accompanying article).

A further update, with regional detail will be produced in mid-December, once Defra publish a full UK crop area figure.

Crop Areas 2022

Defra has published the first official crop area figures for harvest 2022.  These only relate to England at the moment; full UK figures are due next month.  Given the raft of data previously published on crop areas, there are no real surprises in the release.

In 2022, the English wheat area was 1.67 million hectares, an increase of 13,000 hectares on 2021.  Wheat area increased in all regions of England, except the Eastern region where area fell by just 0.3%.  The rapeseed area increased by the largest amount year-on-year.  Oilseed rape prices were considerably higher than in recent years during July to September last season.  As a result, the OSR area increased by more than 54,000 hectares, up 20% on 2021.  There were large increase in the East Midlands (+11.4Kha), West Midlands (+8.7Kha), Yorkshire and the Humber (+8.5Kha), and the Eastern region (+8.5Kha).  Further increases in OSR area were anticipated for harvest 2023.  However, given the incredibly dry summer and lack of rain in late August/ early September for many regions, planting issues will limit the increase.

The rise in rapeseed area for 2022 was, seemingly, at the expense of barley and oats.  The overall area of the barley crop in England was the lowest since 2015, at 782,000 hectares.  Spring barley area fell by the largest amount, down more than 60,000 hectares.  The planted area of oats fell by 19,000 hectares, to 140,000 hectares.  The area of rye in England has increased considerably in the last ten years.  In 2013, it was just 6,000; in 2022 this had increased to just below 40,000.  The crop has potential in multiple markets, including pig feed, which is likely a driver of the increase.

The first official Defra harvest estimates for cereals and oilseed production in are typically published in October, followed by the final UK results in December.  Looking to the 2023 harvest, the results of the ‘AHDB Early Bird’ survey (conducted by Andersons) will provide the first robust indication of areas.  Regional results will be available in December 2022.

AHDB Planting Survey

The far better establishment conditions for the 2021 crop compared with the atrocious weather for 2020 harvest has resulted in a huge swing to cropping, largely back to more ‘normal’ levels.  For oilseed rape, the loss of confidence in growing the crop largely because of the mostly uncontrollable pressure from cabbage stem flea beetle (CSFB) has meant the harvested area has dropped to its lowest for over 30 years.

According to the AHDB’s 2021 Planting and Variety Survey, GB winter wheat plantings have recorded a year-on-year rise of 26% to 1,742 thousand hectares.  Every region recorded a rise in plantings, the most significant being in the East Midlands (+47%) and West Midlands (+42%).   Nabim Group 1 and 2 varieties made up 44% of the area in 2020 compared with 41% last year and 36% in 2019, showing a rising proportion of milling wheat being grown.

The total GB barley cropped area has recorded a 18% year-on-year fall to 1,119K hectares as growers ‘correct’ their rotations from their enforced spring cropping regime last season.  The winter barley area (not surprisingly) rose 15% to 350K hectares, with again the East Midlands recording the most significant rise of 88% with the South West showing the next largest rise of 35%.  As a consequence, spring barley plantings have inevitably recorded a 28% fall on the year to 769K hectares; still quite high compared with the years before 2020, demonstrating the gradual increase in spring cropping we are seeing in the UK.  According to the AHDB, 58% of the GB barley area is malting barley varieties; last year it was 75% and 56% in 2019.

The area of oats has risen by 1%, with an 18% rise in Scotland, and 2% fall in England and Wales with big swings in some regions (down 22% in the East Midlands and up 28% in the East).

The awful growing year in 2019/20 for oilseed rape, because of both the weather but also worst infestation so far of CSFB, clearly put a large number of growers off for this year.  Ironically, the crop looks good and its harvest is starting.  Yet, with a 21% fall of area in the East Midlands, 22% decline in the South West and 34% reduction in the East, the overall crop area has fallen 15% since even last year.  This makes the cropped area the lowest since 1989 when including spring OSR.  We expect those who stuck with it for this year will observe a good harvest and high gross margin so it may encourage a small resurgence of cropping for 2022.

The full AHDB Planting and Variety Survey can be found at https://ahdb.org.uk/planting-variety-survey

Crop Area Projection Updates

At last the weather has turned out nice.  The rain has stopped, at least for now, but certainly for long enough for many farmers from Oxfordshire to Newcastle to complete (and in some cases even start) their drilling.  At the time of writing, many farmers are busily trying to get as much of their spring seed in the ground as possible.  Seed merchants are reporting low availability of late drilled seeds like maize and spring beans as a result of high demand.

Last month we published an article commenting on the second Early Bird survey that we support AHDB with.  This is the survey that assesses what has been planted and what growers intend to plant in the UK.  It included planting intentions which, at the time, left opportunity for winter wheat to be planted.  The rain did not stop in time for winter crops to be drilled and also may have curbed the spring drilling window for some growers leaving, we believe, a high chance of elevated fallow land and grass this year compared with normal. Our updated projections on crop areas look as follows:

If this projection is correct, it would leave potentially the lowest wheat area planted in the UK since 1978/79, and the highest spring barley area since 1987/88.  Some projections expect spring barley to exceed 1 million hectares but we are not convinced there is enough time for that to occur.  Oilseed rape area might end up being the lowest since 1988/89.  Even so, it still might be the highest we see again because the difficulties of growing the crop this year have been only partly because of the rain, and partly because of the flea beetle.  The fallow land area we have suggested here would be the highest level since set aside was mandatory back in 2007.  For 2020 autumn drilling and the 2021 harvest, we would expect a high proportion of farmers very keen to capitalise on the first wheat opportunity, possibly planting a little earlier than this year too.  Hold tight for a big wheat crop next year.

June Survey of Agriculture 2018

Defra has released its provisional estimates from the June 2018 Survey of Agriculture and Horticulture showing planted areas in the UK for the main crops, and also estimates for crop production.  The key results for the arable sector are summarised in the table below.  The data is only provisional at present, final results are expected to be available on 20th December.  Wales does not produce provisional results, so 2017 data has been carried forward (except for cattle numbers) to allow UK figures to be presented.

Provisional results show the wheat area has increased marginally but with yields declining, the overall production has fallen by 5.1% on the year.  The total barley area, after increasing in recent years, has fallen but a closer look at the split between spring and winter reveals the spring crop area has continued to increase, although at a slower rate than last year, whilst the area of winter barley has reduced again.  Producers continue to switch to spring crops to facilitate weed (blackgrass) control and to spread workloads.  In addition, the economics of growing spring malting barley are better than winter feed barley in many cases.  The oat area has continued to increase, but a poor harvest has reduced the provisional yield by 9.2% compared with 2017, resulting in overall production for the year down by 2.1%.

UK JUNE CENSUS AND CROP PRODUCTION
AREA – ‘000 Ha 2015 2016 2017 2018 Change 17-18
WHEAT

Yield (tonnes per Ha)

Production (‘000 tonnes)

 1,832

9.0

16,444

 1,823

7.9

14,467

 1,792

8.3

14,837

 1,797

7.8

14,086

 +0.3%

-5.3%

-5.1%
BARLEY

Winter Barley

Spring Barley

Yield (tonnes per Ha)

Production (‘000 tonnes)

 1,101

442

659

6.7

7,370

 1,122

439

683

5.9

6,655

 1,177

423

754

6.1

7,169

 1,157

394

762

5.7

6,606

 -1.7%

-6.7%

+1.1%

-6.3%

-7.9%
OATS

Yield (tonnes per Ha)

Production (‘000 tonnes)

 131

6.1

799

 141

5.8

816

 161

5.4

875

 174

4.9

857

 +7.8%

-9.2%

-2.1%
OTHER CEREALS 35 45 52 51 -1.8%
TOTAL CEREALS

Production (‘000 tonnes)

 3,100

24,734

 3,132

21,967

 3,181

22,999

 3,178

21,742

 +1.6%

-5.5%
OILSEED RAPE

Winter Oilseed Rape

Spring Oilseed Rape

Yield (tonnes per Ha)

Production (‘000 tonnes)

 652

645

7

3.9

2,542

 579

570

9

3.1

1,775

 562

554

9

3.9

2,167

 601

593

8

3.4

2,051

 +6.8%

+7.0%

-6.1%

-11.4%

-5.3%
LINSEED 15 27 26 25 -6.2%
SUGAR BEET 90 86 111 116 +4.5%
POTATOES 129 139 145 142 -2.1%
FIELD BEANS 170 177 193 158 -18.0%
COMBINING PEAS 44 51 40 41 +1.4%
MAIZE 187 194 197 224 +13.3%
FALLOW 214 262 241 269 +11.5%
Source: DEFRA    2018 data is provisional

After recent year-on-year declines, the oilseed rape area rose by 6.8% compared with 2017.  But the difficult weather conditions during the year caused a fall of yields resulting in overall production, provisionally, declining by 5.3%.  The lack of pest and disease control options were a problem in oilseed rape production, with anecdotal evidence that flea beetle has been an issue this current planting season too, in areas not normally as prone.

The new sugar beet contracts offered in 2017 caused a significant increase in planted area, this increased further in 2018 and is getting nearer to its ‘traditional’ area of circa 120,000 Ha.  But a difficult growing year in 2018 and lower prices for 2019 are likely to slow the pace of increase.  The potato area, after recent year-on-year increases has declined and with yield expected to have taken a hit, production will have fallen (see potato article).

The the ban on PPPs on all EFA land for 2018 caused the bean area to decline by 18%.  The full crop area and production figures can be found at https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/747210/structure-jun2018prov-UK-11oct18.pdf . The first statistical indications of plantings for next year will come next month with the publication of the AHDB’s ‘Early Bird’ Survey.