AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds has published its provisional results for their annual Early bird Survey, undertaken for them by The Andersons Centre. Planting intentions for the GB 2018 harvest suggest a small decline in wheat area. Spring barley and oilseed rape are expected to rise in area from the 2017 harvest, with a fall in area forecast for winter barley and pulses. The area surveyed this year has nearly doubled to just under half a million hectares.
| EARLY BIRD SURVEY (EBS) ESTIMATES OF GB CROP AREAS FOR HARVEST 2018 | |||
| ‘000 hectares |
DEFRA June Survey 2017 |
EBS Forecast Harvest 2018 |
Change |
| All Wheat |
1,791 |
1,752 |
-2% |
| Winter Barley |
424 |
388 |
-9% |
| Spring Barley |
754 |
773 |
3% |
| Oats |
161 |
160 |
-1% |
| Other Cereals |
52 |
52 |
1% |
| OSR |
563 |
616 |
9% |
| Other Oilseeds |
27 |
27 |
1% |
| Pulses |
232 |
219 |
-6% |
| Arable Fallow |
241 |
247 |
3% |
| Other Crops on Arable Land* |
431 |
438 |
2% |
| Total |
4,676 |
4,671 |
|
| Source: AHDB /The Andersons Centre * Sugar beet, potatoes, maize, vegetables, roots & other stock feed | |||
The provisional results have been used to extrapolate from the 2017 UK June Survey to produce forecast crop areas for the 2018 UK harvest. The wheat area is seen down year on year by 2% which, if correct, would result in 1,752,000 Ha, making the fourth consecutive decline in area; but still within the range of recent years. Winter barley area is seen declining by 8.5%, with the spring barley area continuing its rise, forecast to rise by 2.5% in 2018 to 773,000 Ha (its fourth consecutive area increase).
The oilseed rape area is forecast to see a strong rebound by 9%, bringing it back over 600,000 Ha, following the three consecutive declines in recent crops. Pulses are predicted to fall in area by 6%, probably mostly due to the ban on pesticide usage in Nitrogen Fixing Crops used for Ecological Focus Areas.
The trend of greater inclusion of other crops on arable land (e.g. crops for AD and livestock) is thought to rise by 2%. This is also likely to include an increase in the area of sugar beet as a result of a rise in the amount of Contract Tonnage Entitlement being offered for 2017 and 2018 crops.
