Tag: Oilseeds

Global Grain and Oilseed Markets

Throughout November the price of grain has fallen back considerably.  Futures prices were dropping before the announcement of a 120-day extension to the Ukrainian grain export corridor, 17th November.  Global grain markets have softened primarily on expectations of a large maize crop.  The crop underpins global feed and industrial (ethanol) markets.

There are expectations of record maize production in South America, in response to high prices.  Brazilian weather conditions appear well suited to a big crop.  Conversely, Argentina is also forecast for a record maize crop despite currently experiencing a severe drought.  The drought in Argentina has, however, trimmed production outlooks for wheat.  South American weather remains a key watch point for grain markets, particularly with an active La Niña (the third in three years).  La Niña brings dry weather to South America.

Despite forecasts for bumper maize production, the balance of global grain supply and demand remains tight.  This ought to offer some underlying support.  However, concerns about the impact of recession on demand, particularly industrial demand, seem to be outweighing this fundamental tightness.

Demand concerns are also impacting global oilseed prices.  China’s zero-tolerance approach to Covid is driving expectations of reduced palm oil demand.  This, combined with increased palm oil production in Southeast Asia, has depressed prices.  This has impacted rapeseed markets with the underlying value of rapeseed oil falling.  Additionally, a rebound in Canadian canola (rapeseed) production following last year’s disastrous crop is leaving global oilseeds well supplied.

Grain & Oilseed Market

This month, the first UK wheat and barley supply and demand figures for harvest 2022 were published by AHDB.  A 15.7 million tonne crop has left the UK looking well supplied.

Given the increase in available supplies relative to last season, the discount of UK feed wheat futures to Paris milling wheat futures has grown.  This will prompt increased export demand for UK grains.

The Pound closed on Friday 21st October at £1=$1.13, almost 7% lower against the Dollar than on 1st July.  It is worth highlighting that this is up significantly from the low of £1=$1.07 at the end of September.  The political and economic uncertainty in the UK that has caused the Pound to weaken at least increases the attractiveness of UK exports.

Wheat values have bounced around over the course of the past month, mostly driven by uncertainty over the Ukraine-Russia grain shipment deal.  However, with things returning to the status quo in the Black Sea, at least for the time being, grain values have fallen back.  On Friday 21st October, ex-farm feed wheat was worth £256 per tonne, down £12 per tonne from 23rd September.  Milling wheat prices have fallen £11 per tonne over the same time period to £311 per tonne.

AHDB’s barley supply and demand estimates shows UK production at 7.2 million tonnes.  The commentary alongside the estimates highlights a decline in barley demand in animal feed driven by a switch to wheat.  Barley is currently at a £19 per tonne discount to feed wheat.  If demand falls further, without a strong gain in exports the discount will grow.  Given the reductions in the size of the pig herd, a fall in barley demand seems likely.

In the next three months, the size of the South American maize crop will be a key driver of price.  Brazil and Argentina are key suppliers globally and are set to experience a third successive la Niña. The weather pattern brings drier than normal weather and tends to reduce output.

UK ex-farm oilseed rape is worth £521 per tonne, up almost £30 per tonne on the month.  Vegetable oils are the key driver of support for oilseed rape.  The destruction of a key sunflower oil processing plant in Ukraine, uncertainty over palm oil output in Southeast Asia, and strong EU purchasing (both rapeseed and sunflower seed) combined to support prices.  A large soyabean crop, globally, and expectations of big canola (OSR) crops in Australia and Canada is tempering prices.

Feed bean values continue to move lower on lacklustre demand both domestically and for export.

Arable Markets

A week is a long time in politics, and given their intertwined nature at present, so too in grain markets.  As the war in Ukraine enters into its second month, the impact on grain and oilseed markets has been considerable.  This is not surprising when we consider the reliance the world has on both Ukraine and Russia for grain and oilseed supplies.

The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations held an extraordinary general meeting earlier in March, to discuss the challenge of the war in Ukraine.  The report from the meeting highlights 26 countries which rely on Russia and the Ukraine for more than 50% of their wheat imports.  Some of those nations will be relatively small importers.  However, it is worth noting Egypt, which imports more than 15 million tonnes of wheat annually.  Historically, 70% of Egypt’s wheat imports have been sourced from the Black Sea.  Whilst we can expect markets to be volatile long after the end of the war, much will depend on how the nations who rely so heavily on Russia align themselves politically going forward.

Farmgate grain prices have risen considerably over the course of the last month.  Nearby farmgate feed wheat was worth £292.90 per tonne on 18th March, up £69.40 per tonne from 25th February.  The value of farmgate prices has been driven by futures market volatility.  This is, in turn, making markets challenging to price.  Milling wheat prices have also seen increases, although the premiums over feed wheat have remained relatively stable.  Feed barley values have also increased considerably, following the direction of wheat markets.  Farmgate feed barley increased £67.90 per tonne from 25th February, up to £277.80 per tonne on 18th March.

Outside of the conflict in Ukraine, the grain market would likely be seeing support anyway.  Dry conditions over winter in the EU and US, will cause some concern on wheat markets.  Drought conditions are also seen in North Africa, if this persists, we can expect increased import demand globally.

Oilseeds prices have also risen considerably in recent weeks. Paris rapeseed futures (May-22) traded at more than €1,000 per tonne on 23rd March.  As with grains, there is a global reliance on the Black Sea for rapeseed and sunflower oil.  Ex-farm UK oilseed rape prices were quoted at £742.50 per tonne on 18th March.

Pulse prices have also gained over the last month.  However, the gain in the value of pulses has been limited compared to that in grains and oilseeds.

Crop Area Projection Updates

At last the weather has turned out nice.  The rain has stopped, at least for now, but certainly for long enough for many farmers from Oxfordshire to Newcastle to complete (and in some cases even start) their drilling.  At the time of writing, many farmers are busily trying to get as much of their spring seed in the ground as possible.  Seed merchants are reporting low availability of late drilled seeds like maize and spring beans as a result of high demand.

Last month we published an article commenting on the second Early Bird survey that we support AHDB with.  This is the survey that assesses what has been planted and what growers intend to plant in the UK.  It included planting intentions which, at the time, left opportunity for winter wheat to be planted.  The rain did not stop in time for winter crops to be drilled and also may have curbed the spring drilling window for some growers leaving, we believe, a high chance of elevated fallow land and grass this year compared with normal. Our updated projections on crop areas look as follows:

If this projection is correct, it would leave potentially the lowest wheat area planted in the UK since 1978/79, and the highest spring barley area since 1987/88.  Some projections expect spring barley to exceed 1 million hectares but we are not convinced there is enough time for that to occur.  Oilseed rape area might end up being the lowest since 1988/89.  Even so, it still might be the highest we see again because the difficulties of growing the crop this year have been only partly because of the rain, and partly because of the flea beetle.  The fallow land area we have suggested here would be the highest level since set aside was mandatory back in 2007.  For 2020 autumn drilling and the 2021 harvest, we would expect a high proportion of farmers very keen to capitalise on the first wheat opportunity, possibly planting a little earlier than this year too.  Hold tight for a big wheat crop next year.

Arable Markets

Overall Comment

Whilst in some counties over the last week the weather has been harsh, over the country it appears overall, December has so far been considerably ‘less wet’ than the previous 3 months. But with soils already saturated it does not take much to keep the land impassable. Now the crops are mostly dormant meaning nothing is transpiring the water away, and minimal evaporation is taking place either as temperatures are too low with high humidity. In other words, a millimetre of rain here and there has been topping up the already sodden soils. Cold dry frosts have also been scarce this autumn, meaning that grain conditioning in store has been difficult. Some samples, particularly of barley have been losing premiums because of infestations. Managing grain quality will become increasingly difficult this winter.

Wheat

Nevertheless, the AHDB has reported they consider the winter wheat planted area has now risen to about 60 of intended plantings, suggesting progress of about 5% since the last of these bulletins was published. Clearly, at this rate, and if weather conditions do not change, there will still be about 30% of the planned winter wheat area undrilled at the end of February; about the end of the window available for drilling most of the varieties currently sat in bags in farm barns around the country.

UK grain traders have had a challenging time this season, unable to book grain exports past the official Brexit dates. For a year with a large crop to sell, this has affected market prices. Perhaps some clarity in the New Year will facilitate the rest of the marketing campaign.

Barley

Old crop markets are asleep already in preparation for the Christmas break. Its not even planted yet, but the prices for the 2020 crop have not been great, with expectations of very large UK and EU crops. Few buyers are buying much new crop yet, as prices are so bearish. Certainty regarding the EU departure will support the buying confidence.  Seed traders have been gathering what spring barley tonnages they can and, between them, it appears there is enough available for in excess of a million hectares to go in the ground, as soon as conditions allow. This would be the highest spring barley crop since 1988, and the largest total barley crop since 1990; that is, assuming it is dry enough to drill by then.

Oilseed Rape

Global demand for vegetable oils is strong. The Chinese still demand vast tonnages of soybeans, despite millions of its pigs, who et the meal) have been slaughtered because of African Swine Fever. This might shift the balance of demand between oil and meal which would favour crops like oilseed rape that have a higher oil content. Certainly, oilseed rape has done quite well over the last month, regardless of the overall movements of sterling.

Pulses

Pulses trade quickly in the first half of a marketing year, then slow down for the second half. The export market for pulses for this season is quickly reaching that point, partly as the Australian crop will be competing strongly come January, and also because of customs clearance deadlines in North Africa.

 

 

Arable Market Update

This time last year we took a look at the global grain supply and demand figures supplied by the International Grains Council (IGC).  The IGC is a politically independent body, so therefore theoretically has greater credibility than the US Department of Agriculture, the other major organisation that publishes global grain statistics.  The only issue is that the IGC has a secretariat of about 20 economists, and the USDA, some thousands, with people on the ground in every region of the world.  In any event, the figures from the two organisations are often relatively similar!

Twelve months ago, we discussed how wheat stocks were at their highest ever, in physical terms.  This year, running at 38 million tonnes (or 5%) less, the fundamentals are looking more positive for grain long-holders (farmers).  Furthermore, as can be seen from the change in pre-harvest expectations back in March 2018, to the last set of figures in November, the reality of what has been harvested in the 2018 year (and continues to be cut in the Southern Hemisphere) is lower than initial estimates; again, bullish for price.  The stocks to use ratio is lower than last year at 35.4%, but still considerably higher than the previous two years, suggesting accessing the right specification and location of wheat by consumers is unlikely to be challenging to buyers in the coming season.  A lower level of stocks held by exporters offers a glimmer of hope to those waiting for prices to rise, but it also suggests that importers have more stocks so might buy less.

 

17/18 figures forecast; 18/19 estimates   1 Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, US    2 Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, US    3 Argentina, Brazil, US

A look at the maize figures shows a different story; one of rising stocks and increasing availability.  This indicates that crops grown for energy alone (animal feed and bioethanol purposes primarily), are in relatively bounteous supply.  It suggests that the premium for milling varieties might benefit in the coming year.  However, in another interesting twist to the story, as stock levels are expected to be so much lower this year than for the last few (because of rising usage), the stock:usage ratio is seen falling.  Furthermore, the Egyptians (the world’s largest wheat importers) have been buying Russian wheat at prices above anything they have paid for 4 years.  This, coupled with a weakened Sterling because of recent political shenanigans, supports UK wheat prices.  We are still a long way from harvest 2019 (the IGC hasn’t even started to forecast supply and demand for it as yet).  There was a view that, barring major weather events, as we approached harvest 2019 there would be a downwards ‘correction’ in wheat prices as availability rose.  There is now perhaps a lesser chance of this happening. 

Barley markets are quiet ahead of Christmas, with few buyers or sellers, including no new export business. Premium samples of malting barley retain a good premium for those still unsold.

The oilseed marketplace has seen prices move a little more than grains this month, partly because of the Chinese/US politics which affect soy beans but also as the southern hemisphere crop is being harvested and some is already sold and loading for delivery into the EU.