It has been one of the latest and most drawn-out potato planting seasons for years, with around a fifth of the UK crop still to go in the ground by the third week of May. Progress could have been a lot slower if it was not for the dry weather earlier in the month, while those with planting still to do were looking at weather forecasts with concerned eyes fearing thunderstorms that could further slow progress and damage seedbeds. There is the very unusual prospect of some early growers on light Suffolk land lifting at the same time as some of their Norfolk and Cambridgeshire neighbours on heavy land just a few dozen miles away are still planting.
The difficult planting season and low prices from last year’s harvest have persuaded some growers to reduce plantings and it can be expected that the national area will be around 5% smaller than in 2017. Although potatoes do have a particular knack of bouncing back given the right conditions, the bumper yields of last year are unlikely to be repeated, especially for any crop planted after the middle of May. Therefore, there could quite easily be a 10% reduction in the GB crop from the large 6 million tonne harvest last year. That should lead to higher prices.
Free-buy values for the 2017 crop are failing to increase this year despite late planting and the average price is still hovering under £100 per tonne. A much-delayed start to the new season might eventually push old crop prices up, but growers are not banking on it.
Planting has been late across Northern Europe because of the cold and wet spring, but crops are in the ground and growing. That could raise the prospect of another reasonably large crop, some of which could find its way across the English Channel if the British harvest is small. The European industry is expecting an uplift in 2018/19 prices with the April 2019 futures market at €170 per tonne, which compares to €60 per tonne for similar free-buy potatoes today.
